Vol 18 No 4 (2018)
2018-09-01
Vol 18 No 4 (2018)
2018-09-01
Articles
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The rapid growth of cities requires effective management of transport demand and restructuring of transport systems to address the needs of growing urban populations in an environmentally, socially and economically sustainable way. In recent years, car sharing has emerged as an alternative to owning cars in cities, which has potential to bring environmental gains and address social considerations. There is a sizeable academic inquiry about the social and environmental benefits of car sharing and the barriers to its introduction and provision in different empirical contexts. However, most research on the determinants of its uptake and the ease of provision remains limited to investigating consumer demand and how to realise the benefits of car sharing. Drawing on cases from the UK, Israel, Sweden and Finland, this paper focuses on the institutional and policy settings to understand the systemic barriers for car sharing services in diverse urban contexts to expand knowledge on the challenges to and the challenges that emerge from car sharing schemes.
The rapid growth of cities requires effective management of transport demand and restructuring of transport systems to address the needs of growing urban populations in an environmentally, socially and economically sustainable way. In recent years, car sharing has emerged as an alternative to owning cars in cities, which has potential to bring environmental gains and address social considerations. There is a sizeable academic inquiry about the social and environmental benefits of car sharing and the barriers to its introduction and provision in different empirical contexts. However, most research on the determinants of its uptake and the ease of provision remains limited to investigating consumer demand and how to realise the benefits of car sharing. Drawing on cases from the UK, Israel, Sweden and Finland, this paper focuses on the institutional and policy settings to understand the systemic barriers for car sharing services in diverse urban contexts to expand knowledge on the...
The rapid growth of cities requires effective management of transport demand and restructuring of transport systems to address the needs of growing urban populations in an environmentally, socially and economically sustainable way. In recent years, car sharing has emerged as an alternative to...
Nihan Akyelken, Moshe Givoni, Marja Salo, Andrius Plepys, Jáchym Judl, Karen Anderton, Sirkka Koskela -
To create a safer environment for bicyclists and pedestrians, the usefulness of different types of kerbs as a separation between these two modes has been questioned by both researchers and practitioners. Right angled kerbs pose risks to cyclists due to their height but are assumed to separate them well from pedestrians. Sloped and levelled kerb types are more forgiving but allow road traffic users to move onto each other’s infrastructure, creating a potential risk of collision. We examined the effects of different types of kerbs on cyclists’ and pedestrians’ behaviour. This is operationalized as a road user moving onto another traffic user’s infrastructure (i.e. crossing the kerb). A total of 14,502 bicyclists and 3,578 pedestrians at 12 different locations in Amsterdam were observed. We also examined the motives for crossing the kerb, and some smaller studies were carried out on corners and intersections and in some other Dutch cities for making comparisons. The results show that cyclists moving on the sidewalk is a relatively rare event for all kerb types and no conflicts between cyclists and pedestrians were observed. We therefore consider it unlikely that the risks of the height difference weigh up against the advantages in terms of separating cyclists and pedestrians. Thus, in the ambition of separating bicyclists from pedestrians as well as designing a ‘forgiving’ kerb to accept that people make mistakes, both the sloped and levelled kerb types come out as best practice.
To create a safer environment for bicyclists and pedestrians, the usefulness of different types of kerbs as a separation between these two modes has been questioned by both researchers and practitioners. Right angled kerbs pose risks to cyclists due to their height but are assumed to separate them well from pedestrians. Sloped and levelled kerb types are more forgiving but allow road traffic users to move onto each other’s infrastructure, creating a potential risk of collision. We examined the effects of different types of kerbs on cyclists’ and pedestrians’ behaviour. This is operationalized as a road user moving onto another traffic user’s infrastructure (i.e. crossing the kerb). A total of 14,502 bicyclists and 3,578 pedestrians at 12 different locations in Amsterdam were observed. We also examined the motives for crossing the kerb, and some smaller studies were carried out on corners and intersections and in some other Dutch cities for making comparisons. The results...
To create a safer environment for bicyclists and pedestrians, the usefulness of different types of kerbs as a separation between these two modes has been questioned by both researchers and practitioners. Right angled kerbs pose risks to cyclists due to their height but are assumed to separate...
Bas Janssen, Paul Schepers, Haneen Farah, Marjan Hagenzieker -
Transport cost-benefit analysis frameworks do not consider the environmental impacts deriving from the life cycle of the transport system’s components. This leads to an inaccurate representation of the environmental impacts of transport projects, which can be instead more thoroughly represented by life cycle assessment methods. In the present study, we describe a transport cost-benefit analysis model combined with a life cycle assessment module developed based on life cycle ReCiPe 2016 methodology. The suggested approach makes it possible to include the life cycle impacts on human health, ecosystem and natural resource depletion in the project assessment. We discuss the methodological issues of combining cost-benefit analysis and life cycle assessment in transport appraisals. We illustrate the results from the application of the model to a transport case study related to the construction of a new fixed link across the Roskilde Fjord in Frederikssund (Denmark). The analysis shows that the environmental impacts deriving from the life cycle of the system components notably affect the key indicators of the model output, such as benefit-cost ratio and net present value. The results from the model are then tested through sensitivity analysis related to some of the assumptions made for the study. The study concludes that the inclusion of life cycle impacts in transport cost-benefit frameworks allows taking into account environmental costs and benefits otherwise not accounted for, thereby providing to the decision makers a more exhaustive information about the environmental impacts of the project.
Transport cost-benefit analysis frameworks do not consider the environmental impacts deriving from the life cycle of the transport system’s components. This leads to an inaccurate representation of the environmental impacts of transport projects, which can be instead more thoroughly represented by life cycle assessment methods. In the present study, we describe a transport cost-benefit analysis model combined with a life cycle assessment module developed based on life cycle ReCiPe 2016 methodology. The suggested approach makes it possible to include the life cycle impacts on human health, ecosystem and natural resource depletion in the project assessment. We discuss the methodological issues of combining cost-benefit analysis and life cycle assessment in transport appraisals. We illustrate the results from the application of the model to a transport case study related to the construction of a new fixed link across the Roskilde Fjord in Frederikssund (Denmark). The analysis...
Transport cost-benefit analysis frameworks do not consider the environmental impacts deriving from the life cycle of the transport system’s components. This leads to an inaccurate representation of the environmental impacts of transport projects, which can be instead more thoroughly...
Stefano Manzo, Yan Dong, Simona Miraglia, Kim Bang Salling -
Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA) has a long tradition as a broadly-used instrument for assessing transport infrastructure investments. In a CBA, the discount rate often determines whether a project passes the benefit-cost test. One concern is that literature on the subject offers widely differing recommendations regarding which discount rate should be used. What has not yet been studied is the way practitioners translate these (inconclusive) recommendations into the discounting policies applied to transport CBA. This paper aims to bridge this gap by analyzing how the rationales and arguments for underpinning discounting policies provided in literature are translated into five practices: the Netherlands, the United Kingdom, Norway, Sweden and Denmark. It does so by studying the countries’ transport appraisal guidelines and interviewing experts. This study observes that the five practices attempt to fully substantiate the discount rate in empirical results from (academic) studies. However, apart from empirical evidence, discounting policies in the five countries are based on practical arguments, politicaladministrative arguments and judgmental arguments. In some cases these judgments are inevitable because the empirical evidence is inconclusive, but in other cases discretionary decisions are made without any references to empirical evidence. The most important conclusion of this study is that both the political-administrative arguments and judgmental arguments are not – or are poorly – communicated in the guidelines of the five countries. This makes it difficult for the user of the CBA to decide whether s/he agrees with the reasonableness of the judgments. Finally, this study discusses solutions to improve the transparency of discounting policies.
Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA) has a long tradition as a broadly-used instrument for assessing transport infrastructure investments. In a CBA, the discount rate often determines whether a project passes the benefit-cost test. One concern is that literature on the subject offers widely differing recommendations regarding which discount rate should be used. What has not yet been studied is the way practitioners translate these (inconclusive) recommendations into the discounting policies applied to transport CBA. This paper aims to bridge this gap by analyzing how the rationales and arguments for underpinning discounting policies provided in literature are translated into five practices: the Netherlands, the United Kingdom, Norway, Sweden and Denmark. It does so by studying the countries’ transport appraisal guidelines and interviewing experts. This study observes that the five practices attempt to fully substantiate the discount rate in empirical results from (academic) studies....
Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA) has a long tradition as a broadly-used instrument for assessing transport infrastructure investments. In a CBA, the discount rate often determines whether a project passes the benefit-cost test. One concern is that literature on the subject offers widely differing...
Niek Mouter -
Our object of study is welfare optimal driving time regulations in professional road transportation. Due to fatigue, traffic accident risks are supposed to increase as driving times rise. Conversely, the quantity and quality of road infrastructure affect productivity and safety in transportation positively. As the typical driver does not bear all the social costs when accidents happen, in the absence of public regulation, she has an incentive to drive too many hours. Hence, we present two types of public regulatory tools: a uniform driving time restriction and a uniform tax. We then compare the likely outcomes of these regulations (second-best policies) with the welfare optimal (first-best) solution. Moreover, as driving time restrictions are commonly applied worldwide, we study the problem of implementing such prescriptions. When public authorities choose optimal resources in driving time restrictions, the detection of the flouting of these restrictions and the penalty levels for non-compliance, the welfare gains involved must balance the direct and indirect enforcement costs. For example, it follows that the welfare-optimal penalty level should not be so high that the most efficient companies are always forced to comply with the uniform driving time restriction.
Our object of study is welfare optimal driving time regulations in professional road transportation. Due to fatigue, traffic accident risks are supposed to increase as driving times rise. Conversely, the quantity and quality of road infrastructure affect productivity and safety in transportation positively. As the typical driver does not bear all the social costs when accidents happen, in the absence of public regulation, she has an incentive to drive too many hours. Hence, we present two types of public regulatory tools: a uniform driving time restriction and a uniform tax. We then compare the likely outcomes of these regulations (second-best policies) with the welfare optimal (first-best) solution. Moreover, as driving time restrictions are commonly applied worldwide, we study the problem of implementing such prescriptions. When public authorities choose optimal resources in driving time restrictions, the detection of the flouting of these restrictions and the penalty levels...
Our object of study is welfare optimal driving time regulations in professional road transportation. Due to fatigue, traffic accident risks are supposed to increase as driving times rise. Conversely, the quantity and quality of road infrastructure affect productivity and safety in...
Harald Bergland, Pål Andreas Pedersen -
The extended gate concept aims to reduce the pressure on international ports by postponing administrative processes from these border gates to inland terminals. At present, this approach is used mainly in the container transport industry in European and Asian ports. In this paper we study an extended gate concept, where inland customs services are made available from all entry points of a country. Our aim is to predict the portion of the current flow through border gates that is diverted to these inland customs zones. We propose a time-series gravity models to predict these changes and estimate the parameters of this model using publicly available data for different cargo groups. The focus of our application is Iran, a nation with a large and emerging economy, where goods currently enter through 26 main border gates. In addition to this flow diversion model we explain how flow matrices can be synthesized from the available transport statistics. Our calculations indicate that transportation cost, travel time and customs tariff discounts are the most important for the choice of customs zone. The attractiveness of extended gates increases as the direct cost of transportation between the border gate and destination province rises. Extended customs zones in Iran would have an average share of import flows in 2025 of around 13% and attract a volume of 8.4 million metric tons of goods.
The extended gate concept aims to reduce the pressure on international ports by postponing administrative processes from these border gates to inland terminals. At present, this approach is used mainly in the container transport industry in European and Asian ports. In this paper we study an extended gate concept, where inland customs services are made available from all entry points of a country. Our aim is to predict the portion of the current flow through border gates that is diverted to these inland customs zones. We propose a time-series gravity models to predict these changes and estimate the parameters of this model using publicly available data for different cargo groups. The focus of our application is Iran, a nation with a large and emerging economy, where goods currently enter through 26 main border gates. In addition to this flow diversion model we explain how flow matrices can be synthesized from the available transport statistics. Our calculations indicate that...
The extended gate concept aims to reduce the pressure on international ports by postponing administrative processes from these border gates to inland terminals. At present, this approach is used mainly in the container transport industry in European and Asian ports. In this paper we study an...
Saeid Sherafatipour, Mahmoud Saffarzadeh, Lóránt Tavasszy, S. Farshad Fatemi Ardestani -
In the Netherlands, many (mainly larger) train stations suffer from capacity shortages for bicycle parking as the result of a large increase in the use of the bicycle as a feeder mode. Sharing of parked bicycles with arriving train passengers who are in need of a bicycle for some time would decrease the number of parked bicycles and reduce the capacity shortage. The paper explores to which extent sharing of these bicycles relieves the capacity problem by investigating the maximum potential for reducing the peak of parked bicycles. This is the potential of the case when all considered participants (bicycle owners and those who are in need for a bicycle) are willing to share. The analyses are based on data of the Dutch National Travel Survey. The main result is that the potential is likely to be modest. The estimated maximum is for the large stations between 13% and 50%, the actual potential is likely to be significantly lower. The large range for the maximum can partly be explained by the uncertainty about the number of arriving train passengers that might shift to the bicycle for the last mile if sharing increases bicycle availability. A second result is that sharing can have a significant effect on the distribution of parked bicycles over the day. The current peak halfway the day can turn into a dip between two peaks in the traditional morning and evening peak hours.
In the Netherlands, many (mainly larger) train stations suffer from capacity shortages for bicycle parking as the result of a large increase in the use of the bicycle as a feeder mode. Sharing of parked bicycles with arriving train passengers who are in need of a bicycle for some time would decrease the number of parked bicycles and reduce the capacity shortage. The paper explores to which extent sharing of these bicycles relieves the capacity problem by investigating the maximum potential for reducing the peak of parked bicycles. This is the potential of the case when all considered participants (bicycle owners and those who are in need for a bicycle) are willing to share. The analyses are based on data of the Dutch National Travel Survey. The main result is that the potential is likely to be modest. The estimated maximum is for the large stations between 13% and 50%, the actual potential is likely to be significantly lower. The large range for the maximum can partly be...
In the Netherlands, many (mainly larger) train stations suffer from capacity shortages for bicycle parking as the result of a large increase in the use of the bicycle as a feeder mode. Sharing of parked bicycles with arriving train passengers who are in need of a bicycle for some time would...
Kees van Goeverden, Gonçalo Correia -
Investment in transport infrastructure is under pressure. On the one hand, the need for maintaining and/or replacing existing assets as well as building new ones is higher than ever. On the other hand, funding either for maintaining existing assets or building new ones, is severely constrained. Earlier literature proposed to combine all the above factors in the form of indicators that can describe the elements of the transport infrastructure delivery system. At the heart of this system lies the business model, which generates funding and attracts financing. System elements are drawn and kept together by the efficiency and flexibility of their contractual governance. An important element that determines the overall functionality of the system is the contextual setting: the implementation and transport mode contexts. This special issue brings together multiple research contributions that showcase the importance of understanding the funding and financing characteristics of transport infrastructure. A key common conclusion is that success or failure is not dependent on a single factor but rather a group of factors, which are not the same for all targeted outcomes. All papers, in their analysis of respective factors, identify “turning points” in their positive or negative effect on project performance.
Investment in transport infrastructure is under pressure. On the one hand, the need for maintaining and/or replacing existing assets as well as building new ones is higher than ever. On the other hand, funding either for maintaining existing assets or building new ones, is severely constrained. Earlier literature proposed to combine all the above factors in the form of indicators that can describe the elements of the transport infrastructure delivery system. At the heart of this system lies the business model, which generates funding and attracts financing. System elements are drawn and kept together by the efficiency and flexibility of their contractual governance. An important element that determines the overall functionality of the system is the contextual setting: the implementation and transport mode contexts. This special issue brings together multiple research contributions that showcase the importance of understanding the funding and financing characteristics of transport...
Investment in transport infrastructure is under pressure. On the one hand, the need for maintaining and/or replacing existing assets as well as building new ones is higher than ever. On the other hand, funding either for maintaining existing assets or building new ones, is severely...
Thierry Vanelslander, Athena Roumboutsos, Aristeidis Pantelias -
Based on the examination of the transactions made in 58 case study projects, we have developed probabilistic causation models that include relationships hypothesised from exhaustive literature reviews. These models contain relationships that relate a number of significant project variables to transport infrastructure project performance. Here, we report on the use of the Importance Analysis approach to identify the most significant factors linked to variables measuring project performance. Such an approach is used in combination of Bayesian Networks and Sensitivity Analysis. Some variables that resulted important to achieve cost, time, and revenue expectations in transport infrastructure projects are identified. These include factors other than those related to project governance but linked to the funding and financing schemes in a project and its context of implementation. Additionally, we analysed how projects in the BENEFIT database responded to the effects of the European economic crisis in 2008. The results indicated that some actions were implemented at some instances during the crisis time. Specific factors that appeared to be sufficiently robust to face the economic crisis were found.
Based on the examination of the transactions made in 58 case study projects, we have developed probabilistic causation models that include relationships hypothesised from exhaustive literature reviews. These models contain relationships that relate a number of significant project variables to transport infrastructure project performance. Here, we report on the use of the Importance Analysis approach to identify the most significant factors linked to variables measuring project performance. Such an approach is used in combination of Bayesian Networks and Sensitivity Analysis. Some variables that resulted important to achieve cost, time, and revenue expectations in transport infrastructure projects are identified. These include factors other than those related to project governance but linked to the funding and financing schemes in a project and its context of implementation. Additionally, we analysed how projects in the BENEFIT database responded to the effects of the European...
Based on the examination of the transactions made in 58 case study projects, we have developed probabilistic causation models that include relationships hypothesised from exhaustive literature reviews. These models contain relationships that relate a number of significant project variables to...
Ibsen Chivatá Cárdenas, Hans Voordijk, Geert Dewulf -
This investigation aimed to reveal a mechanism of how different road projects' settings respond to macro-economic crisis. Qualitative and quantitative analyses were performed over a sample of 31 European road projects, in various funding arrangements and life cycle phases, all extracted from the Horizon 2020 BENEFIT project cases database. The project setting is described through a specific combination of project features and/or values of developed indicators. The analysis was applied to identify factors that contributed to projects’ performance regarding the resilience to the global financial crisis of 2007–2008. By doing this, it became possible to determine potential liabilities of projects that are already in their implementation or use phases. The analysis showed there are equally strong contributors to a project’s success within country-specific, as well as project-specific features. In order to boost resilience toward sudden and unpredicted disruptions, several factors have emerged, such as long term planning, investing in top priority projects (preferably medium size investments), with realistic traffic projections and experienced and responsible concessionaires, but also having in place strong regulatory bodies and government support.The identified mechanism of enhancing the resilience to crisis caused by a specific project setting can be beneficial to multiple stakeholders.
This investigation aimed to reveal a mechanism of how different road projects' settings respond to macro-economic crisis. Qualitative and quantitative analyses were performed over a sample of 31 European road projects, in various funding arrangements and life cycle phases, all extracted from the Horizon 2020 BENEFIT project cases database. The project setting is described through a specific combination of project features and/or values of developed indicators. The analysis was applied to identify factors that contributed to projects’ performance regarding the resilience to the global financial crisis of 2007–2008. By doing this, it became possible to determine potential liabilities of projects that are already in their implementation or use phases. The analysis showed there are equally strong contributors to a project’s success within country-specific, as well as project-specific features. In order to boost resilience toward sudden and unpredicted disruptions, several...
This investigation aimed to reveal a mechanism of how different road projects' settings respond to macro-economic crisis. Qualitative and quantitative analyses were performed over a sample of 31 European road projects, in various funding arrangements and life cycle phases, all extracted from...
Jelena Ćirilović, Ana Nikolić, Miljan Mikić, Goran Mladenović -
Public authorities increasingly involve the private sector in financing, building and operating new infrastructures. Many reasons are usually given to justify private sector involvement. One of them claims that private operators can manage project construction and operation more efficiently. Nevertheless, whether a public or a private operator, there is a target IRR, very close to the standard notion of Weighted Average Capital Cost (WACC), which is higher in the case of the private alternative because it must also include the operator's profit. The fundamental issue is the result of two opposite effects: on the one hand, the effect of the higher efficiency of the private operator; on the other hand, the effect of a lower WACC for the public operator. This paper proposes a model of the determination of the need of public financing which formalizes these two effects and allows analysing the conditions under which the PPP would be advantageous for the public finances. Simulations estimate the efficiency gain from private operators needed to compensate their higher WACC. Results confirmed the so-called ‘paradox of financial profitability’: recourse to PPP is more relevant for public funds when the profitability of the project is lower.
Public authorities increasingly involve the private sector in financing, building and operating new infrastructures. Many reasons are usually given to justify private sector involvement. One of them claims that private operators can manage project construction and operation more efficiently. Nevertheless, whether a public or a private operator, there is a target IRR, very close to the standard notion of Weighted Average Capital Cost (WACC), which is higher in the case of the private alternative because it must also include the operator's profit. The fundamental issue is the result of two opposite effects: on the one hand, the effect of the higher efficiency of the private operator; on the other hand, the effect of a lower WACC for the public operator. This paper proposes a model of the determination of the need of public financing which formalizes these two effects and allows analysing the conditions under which the PPP would be advantageous for the public finances. Simulations...
Public authorities increasingly involve the private sector in financing, building and operating new infrastructures. Many reasons are usually given to justify private sector involvement. One of them claims that private operators can manage project construction and operation more efficiently....
Alain Bonnafous, Bruno Faivre d’Arcier -
The research objective of this paper is to identify the key factors that affect the cost performance of all types of transport infrastructure projects. The method used is the fuzzy set QUALITATIVE COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS (fs QCA), which allows identifying combinations of factors that affect the cost performance. Results show that 30% of the projects, which are on cost, are explained by a good institutional context, a high ability to save costs, high revenue robustness, high transport market efficiency and acceptability and a mostly public financing scheme as core conditions, combined with good governance as peripheral condition. Also, 29% of the projects, which are over cost, are explained by an unfavourable financial-economic context and mostly a private financing scheme as core conditions, combined with inadequate governance as a peripheral condition. In the on-cost analysis, financing scheme and governance appear to be ‘positive’, while in the over-cost analysis, they appear to be ‘negative’, thus acting consistently and showing their importance, since they contribute respectively to the achievement or not of the cost target. These results can provide useful lessons to academics, practitioners, policy makers and all other stakeholders involved in transport infrastructure projects.
The research objective of this paper is to identify the key factors that affect the cost performance of all types of transport infrastructure projects. The method used is the fuzzy set QUALITATIVE COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS (fs QCA), which allows identifying combinations of factors that affect the cost performance. Results show that 30% of the projects, which are on cost, are explained by a good institutional context, a high ability to save costs, high revenue robustness, high transport market efficiency and acceptability and a mostly public financing scheme as core conditions, combined with good governance as peripheral condition. Also, 29% of the projects, which are over cost, are explained by an unfavourable financial-economic context and mostly a private financing scheme as core conditions, combined with inadequate governance as a peripheral condition. In the on-cost analysis, financing scheme and governance appear to be ‘positive’, while in the over-cost analysis, they appear...
The research objective of this paper is to identify the key factors that affect the cost performance of all types of transport infrastructure projects. The method used is the fuzzy set QUALITATIVE COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS (fs QCA), which allows identifying combinations of factors that affect the...
Eleni Moschouli, Raden Murwantara Soecipto, Thierry Vanelslander, Koen Verhoest -
The Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) has become the standard and most popular tool in corporate finance for assessing t he risk and return in a shareholder´s equity. It is widely used in project finance, particularly in transportation projects. Yet in highly leveraged projects, the CAPM can produce misleading results. In this paper, we show that the values that the CAPM provides for projects that use debt to finance more than 80% of their total investment are unrealistic. This finding is mainly the result of a high leverage value in the CAPM formula. We examine 20 highway projects in Portugal launched between 1999 and 2010. We argue that in transport projects with high debt levels, investors must rely on the weighted average cost of capital. We find that larger and more complex projects tend to have higher equity and capital costs. Further, the financial crisis has a significant effect on increasing the cost of these projects.
The Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) has become the standard and most popular tool in corporate finance for assessing t he risk and return in a shareholder´s equity. It is widely used in project finance, particularly in transportation projects. Yet in highly leveraged projects, the CAPM can produce misleading results. In this paper, we show that the values that the CAPM provides for projects that use debt to finance more than 80% of their total investment are unrealistic. This finding is mainly the result of a high leverage value in the CAPM formula. We examine 20 highway projects in Portugal launched between 1999 and 2010. We argue that in transport projects with high debt levels, investors must rely on the weighted average cost of capital. We find that larger and more complex projects tend to have higher equity and capital costs. Further, the financial crisis has a significant effect on increasing the cost of these projects.
The Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) has become the standard and most popular tool in corporate finance for assessing t he risk and return in a shareholder´s equity. It is widely used in project finance, particularly in transportation projects. Yet in highly leveraged projects, the CAPM can...
Joaquim Miranda Sarmento, Miguel Oliveira -
There are a multitude of factors, both internal and external, that may affect the development and success of any transport project. ‘Success’ is both context-dependent and quite difficult to measure. This paper distinguishes between four types of ‘success’ variables: (lack of) cost overruns; (lack of) time delays; (ex-post) level of traffic; and (generated) revenues. Each variable is modeled in a binary way (using discrete choice models), with each model estimating the relevance of various explanatory factors on the probability of success. Internal factors are found to have the greatest effect on that probability, and PPP projects seem to be prone to budget overruns and delays. Governance factors, such as the tender process, renegotiations, and issues related to penalties, among others, can all produce complications. Since the public authority has control over most of these variables, these results could be used to improve the ‘success’ of these projects.
There are a multitude of factors, both internal and external, that may affect the development and success of any transport project. ‘Success’ is both context-dependent and quite difficult to measure. This paper distinguishes between four types of ‘success’ variables: (lack of) cost overruns; (lack of) time delays; (ex-post) level of traffic; and (generated) revenues. Each variable is modeled in a binary way (using discrete choice models), with each model estimating the relevance of various explanatory factors on the probability of success. Internal factors are found to have the greatest effect on that probability, and PPP projects seem to be prone to budget overruns and delays. Governance factors, such as the tender process, renegotiations, and issues related to penalties, among others, can all produce complications. Since the public authority has control over most of these variables, these results could be used to improve the ‘success’ of these projects.
There are a multitude of factors, both internal and external, that may affect the development and success of any transport project. ‘Success’ is both context-dependent and quite difficult to measure. This paper distinguishes between four types of ‘success’ variables: (lack of) cost...
Lourdes Trujillo, Federico Inchausti-Sintes, Javier Campos, Casiano Manrique-de-Lara-Peñate