Vol 12 No 1 (2012)
Vol 12 No 1 (2012)
Articles
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In Europe, approximately 50% of all passenger kilometres come from trips beyond 100 km according to matrices developed in the TRANSTOOLS project. This accounts for an even larger share of CO2 emissions due to a higher modal share of air transport. Therefore long-distance trips are increasingly relevant from a political and environmental point of view. The paper presents the first tour-based long-distance travel demand model for passenger trips in and between 42 European countries. The model is part of a new European transport model developed for the European Commission, the TRANSTOOLS II model, and will serve as an important tool for transport policy analysis at a European level. The model is formulated as a nested logit model and estimated based on travel diary data with segmentation into business, private, and holiday trips. We analyse the estimation results and present elasticities for a number of different level-ofservice variables. The results suggest that the perception of both travel time and cost varies with journey length in a non-linear way. For car drivers and car passengers, elasticities increase with the length of the journey, whereas the opposite is true for rail, bus, and air passengers – a fact that reflects a change in substitutability. Moreover, elasticities differ significantly by trip purpose with private trips having the highest and holiday trips the lowest elasticities.
In Europe, approximately 50% of all passenger kilometres come from trips beyond 100 km according to matrices developed in the TRANSTOOLS project. This accounts for an even larger share of CO2 emissions due to a higher modal share of air transport. Therefore long-distance trips are increasingly relevant from a political and environmental point of view. The paper presents the first tour-based long-distance travel demand model for passenger trips in and between 42 European countries. The model is part of a new European transport model developed for the European Commission, the TRANSTOOLS II model, and will serve as an important tool for transport policy analysis at a European level. The model is formulated as a nested logit model and estimated based on travel diary data with segmentation into business, private, and holiday trips. We analyse the estimation results and present elasticities for a number of different level-ofservice variables. The results suggest that the perception of...
In Europe, approximately 50% of all passenger kilometres come from trips beyond 100 km according to matrices developed in the TRANSTOOLS project. This accounts for an even larger share of CO2 emissions due to a higher modal share of air transport. Therefore long-distance trips are increasingly...
Jeppe Rich, Stefan L. Mabit -
This paper proposes a new way of handling the uncertainties present in transport decision making based on infrastructure appraisals. The paper suggests to combine the principle of Optimism Bias, which depicts the historical tendency of overestimating transport related benefits and underestimating investment costs, with a quantitative risk analysis based on Monte Carlo simulation and to make use of a set of exploratory scenarios. The analysis is carried out by using the CBA-DK model representing the Danish standard approach to socio-economic cost-benefit analysis. Specifically, the paper proposes to supplement Optimism Bias and the associated Reference Class Forecasting (RCF) technique with a new technique that makes use of a scenariogrid. We tentatively introduce and refer to this as Reference Scenario Forecasting (RSF). The final RSF output from the CBA-DK model consists of a set of scenario-based graphs which functions as risk-related decision support for the appraised transport infrastructure project. The presentation of RSF is demonstrated by using an appraisal case concerning a new airfield in the capital of Greenland, Nuuk.
This paper proposes a new way of handling the uncertainties present in transport decision making based on infrastructure appraisals. The paper suggests to combine the principle of Optimism Bias, which depicts the historical tendency of overestimating transport related benefits and underestimating investment costs, with a quantitative risk analysis based on Monte Carlo simulation and to make use of a set of exploratory scenarios. The analysis is carried out by using the CBA-DK model representing the Danish standard approach to socio-economic cost-benefit analysis. Specifically, the paper proposes to supplement Optimism Bias and the associated Reference Class Forecasting (RCF) technique with a new technique that makes use of a scenariogrid. We tentatively introduce and refer to this as Reference Scenario Forecasting (RSF). The final RSF output from the CBA-DK model consists of a set of scenario-based graphs which functions as risk-related decision support for the appraised...
This paper proposes a new way of handling the uncertainties present in transport decision making based on infrastructure appraisals. The paper suggests to combine the principle of Optimism Bias, which depicts the historical tendency of overestimating transport related benefits and...
Kim Bang Salling, Steen Leleur -
Inclusion of Life Cycle Assessment during the planning of transport infrastructure is rarely used in practice, but is becoming a widely discussed issue nowadays. This study sought to improve understanding of the life cycle energy use and greenhouse gas emissions of transport infrastructure, using the example of a road tunnel. Two levels of analysis were used: 1) detailed data inventory for the construction of rock tunnels; and 2) screening assessment for the life cycle phases of the whole tunnel infrastructure (including its main parts: concrete and rock tunnels). The first level of analysis showed that production of materials (i.e. concrete and asphalt) made the largest contribution to Cumulative Energy Demand and Global Warming Potential. The second level of analysis indicated that concrete tunnels had much higher Cumulative Energy Demand and Global Warming Potential per lane-metre than rock tunnels. Moreover, the operational phase of the tunnel was found to have the highest share of energy use and greenhouse gas emissions throughout the tunnel’s life cycle.
Inclusion of Life Cycle Assessment during the planning of transport infrastructure is rarely used in practice, but is becoming a widely discussed issue nowadays. This study sought to improve understanding of the life cycle energy use and greenhouse gas emissions of transport infrastructure, using the example of a road tunnel. Two levels of analysis were used: 1) detailed data inventory for the construction of rock tunnels; and 2) screening assessment for the life cycle phases of the whole tunnel infrastructure (including its main parts: concrete and rock tunnels). The first level of analysis showed that production of materials (i.e. concrete and asphalt) made the largest contribution to Cumulative Energy Demand and Global Warming Potential. The second level of analysis indicated that concrete tunnels had much higher Cumulative Energy Demand and Global Warming Potential per lane-metre than rock tunnels. Moreover, the operational phase of the tunnel was found to have the highest...
Inclusion of Life Cycle Assessment during the planning of transport infrastructure is rarely used in practice, but is becoming a widely discussed issue nowadays. This study sought to improve understanding of the life cycle energy use and greenhouse gas emissions of transport infrastructure,...
Sofiia Miliutenko, Jonas Åkerman, Anna Björklund -
In June 2010 a seminar was organised at Delft University of Technology on recent developments in the field of Ports and Waterways. During the seminar 36 papers were presented and discussed, both academic and more practical oriented. It was intended from the outset to publish a selection of the more academic papers in a special issue of EJTIR, which has resulted in this issue, comprising four papers covering very different areas within the field of ports and waterways.
In June 2010 a seminar was organised at Delft University of Technology on recent developments in the field of Ports and Waterways. During the seminar 36 papers were presented and discussed, both academic and more practical oriented. It was intended from the outset to publish a selection of the more academic papers in a special issue of EJTIR, which has resulted in this issue, comprising four papers covering very different areas within the field of ports and waterways.
In June 2010 a seminar was organised at Delft University of Technology on recent developments in the field of Ports and Waterways. During the seminar 36 papers were presented and discussed, both academic and more practical oriented. It was intended from the outset to publish a selection of the...
Han Ligteringen, Tiedo Vellinga -
Recently, flexibility has received much attention from port researchers, designers, and managers. This is because the stability of the competitive environment of the past has been replaced by increasing uncertainty. The current economic crisis and the recent trends in ports and shipping sectors are causing port planners to rethink their approach towards port planning, design, and project evaluation. Attributes such as flexibility and adaptability can provide a port infrastructure system with the capacity to be useful under changing requirements, making it robust in face of uncertainty, lengthening its economic lifetime, and thereby guaranteeing payback on investments. Due to the burgeoning research in the field, new measures, new evaluation methods, and new theories and approaches for incorporating flexibility in large-scale infrastructure design have appeared. Adaptive port planning methods are being advocated in place of traditional planning approaches. ‘Design for obsolescence’ is being suggested as an alternative for ‘building in redundancy’ in port infrastructure design. ‘Flexibility’ and ‘adaptability’ are being added to the list of life cycle properties. Real option methods are being advocated for project evaluation under uncertainty. The objective of this paper is to examine the present trends in the port sector and the current practices in port planning, design, and project evaluation. Having identified the inadequacy of these practices under uncertainty, the paper recommends integrating flexibility in designs and processes. It further suggests that Adaptive Port Planning methods, which include Real Options Analysis for valuing flexibility, are better suited in times of uncertainty than the traditional methods.
Recently, flexibility has received much attention from port researchers, designers, and managers. This is because the stability of the competitive environment of the past has been replaced by increasing uncertainty. The current economic crisis and the recent trends in ports and shipping sectors are causing port planners to rethink their approach towards port planning, design, and project evaluation. Attributes such as flexibility and adaptability can provide a port infrastructure system with the capacity to be useful under changing requirements, making it robust in face of uncertainty, lengthening its economic lifetime, and thereby guaranteeing payback on investments. Due to the burgeoning research in the field, new measures, new evaluation methods, and new theories and approaches for incorporating flexibility in large-scale infrastructure design have appeared. Adaptive port planning methods are being advocated in place of traditional planning approaches. ‘Design for...
Recently, flexibility has received much attention from port researchers, designers, and managers. This is because the stability of the competitive environment of the past has been replaced by increasing uncertainty. The current economic crisis and the recent trends in ports and shipping...
P. Taneja, H. Ligteringen, W.E. Walker -
This paper presents a new methodology for the development of a probabilistic very long term forecast of the total port throughput in the Le Havre – Hamburg range up to 2100. The forecast is based on a combination of System Dynamic Modelling, Judgement, and Causal Relations. It is intended to provide infrastructure planners with some guidance on the very long term development of transport demand over the lifetime of the infrastructure. On the basis of the forecast it can be expected that the port throughput in the Le Havre – Hamburg region will remain growing throughout the first half of the century, but at a reduced pace. Towards the end of the century throughput volumes will stabilize or even decrease. The notion of decreasing and stabilizing throughput volumes will help infrastructure planners to consider the (ultimate) capacity to be provided beyond the current expansion plans as well as the type of expansions that will suit future demand some 20 to 30 years from now.
This paper presents a new methodology for the development of a probabilistic very long term forecast of the total port throughput in the Le Havre – Hamburg range up to 2100. The forecast is based on a combination of System Dynamic Modelling, Judgement, and Causal Relations. It is intended to provide infrastructure planners with some guidance on the very long term development of transport demand over the lifetime of the infrastructure. On the basis of the forecast it can be expected that the port throughput in the Le Havre – Hamburg region will remain growing throughout the first half of the century, but at a reduced pace. Towards the end of the century throughput volumes will stabilize or even decrease. The notion of decreasing and stabilizing throughput volumes will help infrastructure planners to consider the (ultimate) capacity to be provided beyond the current expansion plans as well as the type of expansions that will suit future demand some 20 to 30 years from now.
This paper presents a new methodology for the development of a probabilistic very long term forecast of the total port throughput in the Le Havre – Hamburg range up to 2100. The forecast is based on a combination of System Dynamic Modelling, Judgement, and Causal Relations. It is intended to...
Cornelis van Dorsser, Milou Wolters, Bert van Wee -
In 2007, the Belgian Federal Authorities issued a Royal Decree concerning “inland vessels that can also be utilised for non-international sea voyages”, allowing inland vessels to operate in coastal areas between the Belgian coastal harbours and the Belgian inland waterway network via the Western Scheldt. These new regulations have a unique character due to their probabilistic approach: among other requirements, a risk analysis must demonstrate that the probability of adverse events such as bottom slamming, overtaking of water on deck and ingress of water in open cargo holds is limited to an acceptable level. Several inland vessels (tankers, container vessels, car carriers) are nowadays operating according to this Decree in significant wave heights up to 1.90 m. Background is provided into these present regulations, with emphasis on the probabilistic aspects. A description is given of the methodology used for performing the required risk analyses. The effect of important parameters is discussed, both ship related (metacentric height, bilge keels) and wave climate dependent, and an overview of the ongoing research at Flanders Hydraulics Research and Ghent University on estuary container vessels is given.
In 2007, the Belgian Federal Authorities issued a Royal Decree concerning “inland vessels that can also be utilised for non-international sea voyages”, allowing inland vessels to operate in coastal areas between the Belgian coastal harbours and the Belgian inland waterway network via the Western Scheldt. These new regulations have a unique character due to their probabilistic approach: among other requirements, a risk analysis must demonstrate that the probability of adverse events such as bottom slamming, overtaking of water on deck and ingress of water in open cargo holds is limited to an acceptable level. Several inland vessels (tankers, container vessels, car carriers) are nowadays operating according to this Decree in significant wave heights up to 1.90 m. Background is provided into these present regulations, with emphasis on the probabilistic aspects. A description is given of the methodology used for performing the required risk analyses. The effect of important...
In 2007, the Belgian Federal Authorities issued a Royal Decree concerning “inland vessels that can also be utilised for non-international sea voyages”, allowing inland vessels to operate in coastal areas between the Belgian coastal harbours and the Belgian inland waterway network via the...
Marc Vantorre, Katrien Eloot, Guillaume Delefortrie -
The international agreements, made by International Maritime Organization in 2008 are an encouraging start to reduce the SO2 emissions caused by the use of bunker oil. Port authorities are confronted with a dilemma. From an environmental point of view, a proactive attitude is preferred. However, a unilateral initiative may jeopardize their bunker oil market share. In this article, we study the benefits and drawbacks of collaboration on emissions reduction between the ports of Rotterdam and Singapore. Many options for reducing SO2 emissions and several policies strategies are discussed. Collaboration instead of competition may give a strategic financial advantage as compared to other would-be bunker harbors on the route Europe-Asia. Without a group of dedicated and critical actors, both port authorities do not have the power to enforce policies or options. The Rotterdam system can be regarded as a decentralized multi-actor network. The Singaporean situation may be characterized as a centralized authority. The process design towards cooperation should take into account these differences. Overall, it can be concluded that cooperation between the port authorities of Singapore and Rotterdam has extra benefits compared to a situation without cooperation.
The international agreements, made by International Maritime Organization in 2008 are an encouraging start to reduce the SO2 emissions caused by the use of bunker oil. Port authorities are confronted with a dilemma. From an environmental point of view, a proactive attitude is preferred. However, a unilateral initiative may jeopardize their bunker oil market share. In this article, we study the benefits and drawbacks of collaboration on emissions reduction between the ports of Rotterdam and Singapore. Many options for reducing SO2 emissions and several policies strategies are discussed. Collaboration instead of competition may give a strategic financial advantage as compared to other would-be bunker harbors on the route Europe-Asia. Without a group of dedicated and critical actors, both port authorities do not have the power to enforce policies or options. The Rotterdam system can be regarded as a decentralized multi-actor network. The Singaporean situation may be characterized as...
The international agreements, made by International Maritime Organization in 2008 are an encouraging start to reduce the SO2 emissions caused by the use of bunker oil. Port authorities are confronted with a dilemma. From an environmental point of view, a proactive attitude is preferred....
R.M. Stikkelman, M.G. Minnée, M.M.W.J. Prinssen, A.F. Correljé