A Long-Distance Travel Demand Model for Europe


  • Jeppe Rich Technical University of Denmark
  • Stefan L. Mabit Technical University of Denmark




In Europe, approximately 50% of all passenger kilometres come from trips beyond 100 km according to matrices developed in the TRANSTOOLS project. This accounts for an even larger share of CO2 emissions due to a higher modal share of air transport. Therefore long-distance trips are increasingly relevant from a political and environmental point of view. The paper presents the first tour-based long-distance travel demand model for passenger trips in and between 42 European countries. The model is part of a new European transport model developed for the European Commission, the TRANSTOOLS II model, and will serve as an important tool for transport policy analysis at a European level. The model is formulated as a nested logit model and estimated based on travel diary data with segmentation into business, private, and holiday trips. We analyse the estimation results and present elasticities for a number of different level-ofservice variables. The results suggest that the perception of both travel time and cost varies with journey length in a non-linear way. For car drivers and car passengers, elasticities increase with the length of the journey, whereas the opposite is true for rail, bus, and air passengers – a fact that reflects a change in substitutability. Moreover, elasticities differ significantly by trip purpose with private trips having the highest and holiday trips the lowest elasticities.


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How to Cite

Rich, J., & Mabit, S. L. (2012). A Long-Distance Travel Demand Model for Europe. European Journal of Transport and Infrastructure Research, 12(1). https://doi.org/10.18757/ejtir.2012.12.1.2946