The future container throughput for inland shipping on the traditional Rhine: a SARIMAX approach

Abstract

Inland container shipping is confronted with significant challenges, both on the demand and supply side. In line with the 2019 Green Deal’s ambitious goals and 2020 Sustainable and Smart Mobility Strategy, the European Commission presented an ‘Inland Waterway Transport Action plan 2021-2027’ with the target of shifting more freight across inland waterways. However, the COVID-19 pandemic together with the low water level raise interest in how these could impact the throughput for container transport on the inland waterways. In this research, the scope is on the container throughput for inland container transport on the traditional Rhine. This study first identifies the market drivers for containerized inland navigation in the medium run and then selects the SARIMAX method to analyse Inland Waterway Transport (IWT) volumes. The model application shows that the throughput for inland container transport on the traditional Rhine is impacted on by periods of low water and the weakening of the economy caused by COVID-19. The results of the study suggest that if the IWT container market is impacted by the identified factors, the throughput for containerized IWT is expected to decline by 8.9% in 2023 relative to the volumes in 2020. The research might act as a decision support tool for analysis, management and planning for policymakers and stakeholders.