Vol 4 No 1 (2004)
2004-02-01
Vol 4 No 1 (2004)
2004-02-01
Articles
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From the papers in this special issue it can be concluded that an environmentally sustainable transport system is attainable with a broad-based and concerted commitment. Environmentally sustainable transport will result in significant changes in the type of passenger and freight transport provided, but this does not lead to economic collapse. Important challenges lie in the acceptability of the goals, targets, and strategies and their component instruments.
The realisation of the 80% CO2-emission reduction target for the transport sector can be concluded to be the most ambitious one. If the CO2 emission reduction target for the transport sector is assumed to be lower, or the time period for implementing EST longer, the contribution of technological changes to attaining EST is likely to increase, thus decreasing societal impacts and increasing public support. Moreover, recent model studies indicate that global greenhouse gases can - in accordance with the EU climate objective - be effectively reduced by 20%, compared to current levels, by 2040 (i.e. a 50% decrease compared 2040 to baseline projections) through global cap-and-trade emission trading systems and carbon taxation (on average about 100 euro per tonne of CO2) (Bollen et al., 2004). These taxation levels do not strongly affect the transport sector, as other sectors may provide CO2 emission reductions at far lower costs (Van Rompuy et al, 2003).
However, it is difficult to imagine that significant reductions in climate change emissions in the post Kyoto era are attained without efforts to reduce emissions in the transport sector. The EST studies for Germany, the CEI countries and also Sweden show that encouraging environmental, societal and economic impacts can be achieved with an extension of the time period (50% emission reduction by 2030) to allow transition towards EST.
From the papers in this special issue it can be concluded that an environmentally sustainable transport system is attainable with a broad-based and concerted commitment. Environmentally sustainable transport will result in significant changes in the type of passenger and freight transport provided, but this does not lead to economic collapse. Important challenges lie in the acceptability of the goals, targets, and strategies and their component instruments.
The realisation of the 80% CO2-emission reduction target for the transport sector can be concluded to be the most ambitious one. If the CO2 emission reduction target for the transport sector is assumed to be lower, or the time period for implementing EST longer, the contribution of technological changes to attaining EST is likely to increase, thus decreasing societal impacts and increasing public support. Moreover, recent model studies indicate that global greenhouse...
From the papers in this special issue it can be concluded that an environmentally sustainable transport system is attainable with a broad-based and concerted commitment. Environmentally sustainable transport will result in significant changes in the type of passenger and freight...
Karst Geurs, Yoshitsugu Hayashi -
OECD countries recognized in the mid-1990s that transport trends were not sustainable and that existing policy frameworks seemed unlikely to be able to move society towards more sustainable transport systems. A new approach to transport policy was required that would be consistent with the broad definition of sustainable development. To this end, the project on Environmentally Sustainable Transport (EST) was initiated to give some precision to the concept of EST through the use of criteria that have environmental significance and can be quantified. A method known as ‘backcasting’ was used to develop policies and strategies for achieving a desired future state through targeted action. This paper summarizes the results of the project, which involved twelve OECD countries that undertook case studies at local, regional, national and international scales.
The project concluded that some 40 per cent of the effort necessary to meet the EST criteria will come from technology and 60 per cent from demand-side management and a shift towards more sustainable transport modes. EST is attainable, but only if a broad range of instruments is deployed. These include regulations and standards, fiscal measures, changes in governance arrangements, and education, the provision of information, awareness raising, and attitude change, all assembled into coherent packages of instruments applied with careful consideration to phasing.
OECD countries recognized in the mid-1990s that transport trends were not sustainable and that existing policy frameworks seemed unlikely to be able to move society towards more sustainable transport systems. A new approach to transport policy was required that would be consistent with the broad definition of sustainable development. To this end, the project on Environmentally Sustainable Transport (EST) was initiated to give some precision to the concept of EST through the use of criteria that have environmental significance and can be quantified. A method known as ‘backcasting’ was used to develop policies and strategies for achieving a desired future state through targeted action. This paper summarizes the results of the project, which involved twelve OECD countries that undertook case studies at local, regional, national and international scales.
The project concluded that some 40 per cent of the effort necessary to...
OECD countries recognized in the mid-1990s that transport trends were not sustainable and that existing policy frameworks seemed unlikely to be able to move society towards more sustainable transport systems. A new approach to transport policy was required that would be...
Peter Wiederkehr, Richard Gilbert, Philippe Crist, Nadia Caïd -
The paper describes the possible direction of Asian EST, starting with an overview of recent trends and problems in transport systems within Asia, policy practices are also introduced. It was found that although the current situation and trend of transport in the Asian region presents a diverse picture stemming from geographical differences and levels of economic development, most Asian countries share similar concerns about transport-related problems, namely severe congestion, air and noise pollution,. Common patterns can be identified behind these problems, which include: a)large increases in traffic demand, resulting from rapid economic growth, urbanization, and motorisation, b)poor control of vehicle emissions and the absence of effective inspection and maintenance systems, c)lack of adequate and appropriate infrastructures, and d)poor coordination of transport and land-use policies. In the current situation, insufficient understanding of environmental deterioration mechanisms delay the implementation of necessary policy measures in many Asian countries. Each country should find the best way to achieve EST as fast as possible by learning from others’ experiences. Existing good examples within the region, such as intermediate public transport systems and electric road pricing, can provide a strong foundation for this purpose.
The paper describes the possible direction of Asian EST, starting with an overview of recent trends and problems in transport systems within Asia, policy practices are also introduced. It was found that although the current situation and trend of transport in the Asian region presents a diverse picture stemming from geographical differences and levels of economic development, most Asian countries share similar concerns about transport-related problems, namely severe congestion, air and noise pollution,. Common patterns can be identified behind these problems, which include: a)large increases in traffic demand, resulting from rapid economic growth, urbanization, and motorisation, b)poor control of vehicle emissions and the absence of effective inspection and maintenance systems, c)lack of adequate and appropriate infrastructures, and d)poor coordination of transport and land-use policies. In the current situation, insufficient...
The paper describes the possible direction of Asian EST, starting with an overview of recent trends and problems in transport systems within Asia, policy practices are also introduced. It was found that although the current situation and trend of transport in the Asian...
Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Kenji Doi, Masaharu Yagishita, Masako Kuwata -
This paper describes the backcasting approach used in the OECD’s Environmentally Sustainable Transport (EST) Study, in which several countries participated. The backcasting approach can be seen as an innovative tool for policy making, which aims at generating alternative images of the future. These images have been thoroughly analysed as to their feasibility, consequences and policy implications. Here, results and implications for backcasting shown in the Netherlands case study are highlighted and conclusions drawn that EST criteria will only be attainable if a substantial increase in development of technology and stringent behavioural adaptations, with changes in economic structures at an international level, are assumed. If EST is to be realised, measures will have to be taken and instruments will have to be implemented in the short term. Timely implementation will probably mean a necessary radical change in the current Dutch policy ‘life cycle’.
This paper describes the backcasting approach used in the OECD’s Environmentally Sustainable Transport (EST) Study, in which several countries participated. The backcasting approach can be seen as an innovative tool for policy making, which aims at generating alternative images of the future. These images have been thoroughly analysed as to their feasibility, consequences and policy implications. Here, results and implications for backcasting shown in the Netherlands case study are highlighted and conclusions drawn that EST criteria will only be attainable if a substantial increase in development of technology and stringent behavioural adaptations, with changes in economic structures at an international level, are assumed. If EST is to be realised, measures will have to be taken and instruments will have to be implemented in the short term. Timely implementation will probably mean a necessary radical change in the current Dutch...
This paper describes the backcasting approach used in the OECD’s Environmentally Sustainable Transport (EST) Study, in which several countries participated. The backcasting approach can be seen as an innovative tool for policy making, which aims at generating alternative...
Karst Geurs, Bert van Wee -
The study reported in this paper is part of an OECD project with several case studies in different countries. The purpose of the project was to look for possible ways to reduce the environmental impact of transport to a level which is compatible with sustainability. The participants in the case studies agreed upon quantifying criteria for carbon dioxide, nitrogen oxides and volatile organic compounds, which should describe environmentally sustainable transport (EST), and each case study constructed a business-as-usual scenario and three EST scenarios, considering the period from 1990 to 2030. Each EST scenario should meet the criteria in a backcasting effort, EST1 looking for solely technical solutions, EST2 restricting and shifting transport volumes while ignoring technological progress, and EST3 combining components of both strategies. In the German case study criteria were additionally quantified for particulate matter, noise and land-take for transport purposes. The German EST1 scenario is based on hybrid electric hypercars, hydrogen for public transport, freight and aviation, and electricity from renewable sources. In the EST2 scenario total transport activity for passenger and freight transport had to be reduced by 40% and 25% respectively, compared to 1990 in order to meet the criteria. In the EST3 scenario, while highly energy efficient conventional propulsion systems and engines were used, total passenger transport decreased only slightly and freight transport even increased. Implementation measures were then defined on the basis of the EST3 scenario. Emission regulation, fuel tax, and road pricing for heavy duty vehicles were the key features in order to achieve EST in this case study. They were complemented by additional sets of measures, designed to prevent urban sprawl, diminish freight traffic growth, increase liveability of towns, improve the infrastructure and service conditions of alternative modes as well as provide energy supply by regenerative sources.
The study reported in this paper is part of an OECD project with several case studies in different countries. The purpose of the project was to look for possible ways to reduce the environmental impact of transport to a level which is compatible with sustainability. The participants in the case studies agreed upon quantifying criteria for carbon dioxide, nitrogen oxides and volatile organic compounds, which should describe environmentally sustainable transport (EST), and each case study constructed a business-as-usual scenario and three EST scenarios, considering the period from 1990 to 2030. Each EST scenario should meet the criteria in a backcasting effort, EST1 looking for solely technical solutions, EST2 restricting and shifting transport volumes while ignoring technological progress, and EST3 combining components of both strategies. In the German case study criteria were additionally quantified for particulate matter, noise...
The study reported in this paper is part of an OECD project with several case studies in different countries. The purpose of the project was to look for possible ways to reduce the environmental impact of transport to a level which is compatible with sustainability....
Hedwig Verron, Axel Friedrich -
Moving people and freight in an environmentally sustainable manner that reduces environmental pollution and health hazards is a key challenge for transport and environment policies in Europe. Present mobility patterns of passenger and freight transport in Central and Eastern Europe do not correspond to the objectives of sustainable development. This paper presents the results of a transport futures study for the CEI region as a whole using backcasting methodology with long-term sustainability criteria to be met by 2030. Achieving environmentally sustainable transport (EST) doesn’t mean less transport and mobility than we have today, but it means primarily maintaining a balanced modal split that results in less environmental and health impacts than it would be under projected future trends. Rail, trams, busses and new forms of flexible inter-modal public transport mobility would have to take a large share and rail transport for passenger and freight as well as inland shipping would have to be nearly doubled by 2030 while road freight could still increase if it is based on alternative fuels reducing its impacts. Technological advancements for passenger cars and lorries, fuels and infrastructure will play an important part to achieve EST, but also ‘smart’ mobility management (e.g. transport avoidance, increasing load factors and modal shift), innovative mobility services and freight logistics would be critical. The implementation of these policies and strategies will require coherent and comprehensive packages of instruments and measures, including: economic instruments, regulatory instruments, changes
in infrastructure investment, mobility management, information and education programmes as well as better integration of land use, transport and environment policies. Realising EST will provide new opportunities for businesses to develop and invest in innovative solutions for passenger and freight transport. Overall, achieving EST would constitute a net benefit for the environment and for quality of life in general.Moving people and freight in an environmentally sustainable manner that reduces environmental pollution and health hazards is a key challenge for transport and environment policies in Europe. Present mobility patterns of passenger and freight transport in Central and Eastern Europe do not correspond to the objectives of sustainable development. This paper presents the results of a transport futures study for the CEI region as a whole using backcasting methodology with long-term sustainability criteria to be met by 2030. Achieving environmentally sustainable transport (EST) doesn’t mean less transport and mobility than we have today, but it means primarily maintaining a balanced modal split that results in less environmental and health impacts than it would be under projected future trends. Rail, trams, busses and new forms of flexible inter-modal public transport mobility would have to take a large share and rail transport for...
Moving people and freight in an environmentally sustainable manner that reduces environmental pollution and health hazards is a key challenge for transport and environment policies in Europe. Present mobility patterns of passenger and freight transport in Central and Eastern...
Robert Thaler, Peter Wiederkehr -
Results and discussion of the Environmentally Sustainable Transport (EST) Case Study for Japan are introduced within this paper. According to procedures defined in the EST project by the OECD, the targets for a major reduction of environmental load within the transport sector are defined to be CO2, NOx, PM, and VOC. Three scenarios to accomplish these reduction targets, with respect to these environmental loads are detailed: a technooptimistic scenario (EST1), a transport demand management scenario (EST2), and a composite scenario (EST3). All of the scenarios are examined and compared to the business-as-usual (BAU) scenario. Policy instruments to realize these scenarios and their socioeconomic impacts were, to date, not assessed within the study. Utilizing a “back casting” methodology, expected changes in technology and transport behavior in order to meet an ultimate target of emissions reduction were examined by each of the scenarios. The objective areas consisted of a national study, encompassing the whole of Japan, and a regional (Aichi prefecture) study.
The forecasts indicate that CO2 emissions increase by about 10% in Japan but are almost stable in Aichi prefecture. NOx and HC emissions in 2030 are about half, and PM emissions around one quarter of those in 1990 in Aichi prefecture. The results of the back casting indicate that CO2 and NOx reduction targets have severely restrictive conditions. The achievement of targets utilizing only EST1 and EST2 is totally unfeasible. Even in the combined EST3 scenario, and in light of current trends requirements must include strong recommendations for change such as the significant wide spread use of fuel cell vehicles and the reduction of freight transport demands, and hence the scenario still needs to be discussed further.
Results and discussion of the Environmentally Sustainable Transport (EST) Case Study for Japan are introduced within this paper. According to procedures defined in the EST project by the OECD, the targets for a major reduction of environmental load within the transport sector are defined to be CO2, NOx, PM, and VOC. Three scenarios to accomplish these reduction targets, with respect to these environmental loads are detailed: a technooptimistic scenario (EST1), a transport demand management scenario (EST2), and a composite scenario (EST3). All of the scenarios are examined and compared to the business-as-usual (BAU) scenario. Policy instruments to realize these scenarios and their socioeconomic impacts were, to date, not assessed within the study. Utilizing a “back casting” methodology, expected changes in technology and transport behavior in order to meet an ultimate target of emissions reduction were examined by each of the...
Results and discussion of the Environmentally Sustainable Transport (EST) Case Study for Japan are introduced within this paper. According to procedures defined in the EST project by the OECD, the targets for a major reduction of environmental load within the transport sector...
YuichiE Moriguchi, Hirokazu Kato -
The economic assessment of the Environmentally Sustainable Transportation (EST) scenarios developed throughout this paper are part of Phase 3 of the overall project, which is on social and economic assessment and on devising packages of instruments that - if implemented - would result in attaining EST.
Two methods were chosen for the assessment of the scenarios: a qualitative evaluation based on a simplified cybernetic model (SCM) and a system dynamics model (SDM).
In the assessment with the simplified cybernetic model, a conservative baseline has been chosen in order to start with a scenario that incorporates some pessimistic views of the industry. The aim is to show that, even in this case, an economic disaster will not occur.
The System Dynamics Model ESCOT was designed to consider the ecological and technical aspects of a transition towards sustainable transportation. It is important that ESCOT considers not only first round effects but also secondary effects, which makes it a powerful instrument for the assessment of such large ecological changes.
The economic assessment of environmentally sustainable scenarios shows that the departure from car and road freight oriented transport policy is far from leading to an economic collapse. The effects concerning economic indices are rather low, even though the measures proposed in the EST-80% scenario designate distinct changes compared to today’s transport policy. The impacts on some economic indicators, however, are clearly negative. With an expansion of the time period for the transition in the EST-50% scenario we derived even more encouraging results than for EST-80%.
The economic assessment of the Environmentally Sustainable Transportation (EST) scenarios developed throughout this paper are part of Phase 3 of the overall project, which is on social and economic assessment and on devising packages of instruments that - if implemented - would result in attaining EST.
Two methods were chosen for the assessment of the scenarios: a qualitative evaluation based on a simplified cybernetic model (SCM) and a system dynamics model (SDM).
In the assessment with the simplified cybernetic model, a conservative baseline has been chosen in order to start with a scenario that incorporates some pessimistic views of the industry. The aim is to show that, even in this case, an economic disaster will not occur.
The System Dynamics Model ESCOT was designed to consider the ecological and technical aspects of a transition towards sustainable transportation. It is important that...
The economic assessment of the Environmentally Sustainable Transportation (EST) scenarios developed throughout this paper are part of Phase 3 of the overall project, which is on social and economic assessment and on devising packages of instruments that - if implemented - would...
Burkhard Schade, Werner Rothengatter