Vol 17 No 1 (2017)
2017-01-01
Vol 17 No 1 (2017)
2017-01-01
Articles
-
-
-
This paper presents the application and calibration of the recently proposed Restricted Stochastic User Equilibrium with Threshold model (RSUET) to a large-scale case-study. The RSUET model avoids the limitations of the well-known Stochastic User Equilibrium model (SUE) and the Deterministic User Equilibrium model (DUE), by combining the strengths of the Boundedly Rational User Equilibrium model and the Restricted Stochastic User Equilibrium model (RSUE). Thereby, the RSUET model reaches an equilibrated solution in which the flow is distributed according to Random Utility Theory among a consistently equilibrated set of paths which all are within a threshold relative to the cost on the cheapest path and which do not leave any attractive paths unused. Several variants of a generic RSUET solution algorithm are tested and calibrated on a large-scale case network with 18,708 arcs and about 20 million OD-pairs, and comparisons are performed with respect to a previously proposed RSUE model as well as an existing link-based mixed Multinomial Probit (MNP) SUE model. The results show that the RSUET has very attractive computation times for large-scale applications and demonstrate that the threshold addition to the RSUE model improves the behavioural realism, especially for high congestion cases. Also, fast and well-behaved convergence to equilibrated solutions among non-universal choice sets is observed across different congestion levels, choice model scale parameters, and algorithm step sizes. Clearly, the results highlight that the RSUET outperforms the MNP SUE in terms of convergence, calculation time and behavioural realism. The choice set composition is validated by using 16,618 observed route choices collected by GPS devices in the same network and observing their reproduction within the equilibrated choice sets generated by the RSUET model. Relevantly, the RSUET model is very successful in reproducing observed link.
This paper presents the application and calibration of the recently proposed Restricted Stochastic User Equilibrium with Threshold model (RSUET) to a large-scale case-study. The RSUET model avoids the limitations of the well-known Stochastic User Equilibrium model (SUE) and the Deterministic User Equilibrium model (DUE), by combining the strengths of the Boundedly Rational User Equilibrium model and the Restricted Stochastic User Equilibrium model (RSUE). Thereby, the RSUET model reaches an equilibrated solution in which the flow is distributed according to Random Utility Theory among a consistently equilibrated set of paths which all are within a threshold relative to the cost on the cheapest path and which do not leave any attractive paths unused. Several variants of a generic RSUET solution algorithm are tested and calibrated on a large-scale case network with 18,708 arcs and about 20 million OD-pairs, and comparisons are performed with respect to a previously proposed RSUE...
This paper presents the application and calibration of the recently proposed Restricted Stochastic User Equilibrium with Threshold model (RSUET) to a large-scale case-study. The RSUET model avoids the limitations of the well-known Stochastic User Equilibrium model (SUE) and the Deterministic...
Thomas Kjær Rasmussen, Otto Anker Nielsen, David P. Watling, Carlo Giacomo Prato -
Employing the theory of planned behavior for guidance, this study explores the similarities and differences in beliefs about the decisions to commute by bicycle to work in three small, cyclingoriented cities: Gouda (The Netherlands), Shkodra (Albania), and Peja (Kosovo). The setting in the Balkan Peninsula, a less developed region of Europe which has been more rarely the subject of scientific inquiry, has the potential to offer applicability to (smaller) developing cities. The study identifies the following themes or beliefs related to cycling: (1) health and exercise (2) environment (3) safety (4) enjoyment (5) convenience and practicality (6) financial savings (7) pride and tradition (8) status and image and (9) female independence. The findings suggest that, in developing cities changes to the physical environment alone – although crucial - are likely to be insufficient if travel modes are to shift toward active transport. To this end attitudes and perceptions need to be tackled as well. In promoting cycling, policy makers need to strike a fine balance between the concept of the bicycle as an economical mode and as a “trendy” one. The most promising way forward appears to be a combination of public infrastructure investments, cycling tracks in particular, and social marketing strategies to alter travel behavior.
Employing the theory of planned behavior for guidance, this study explores the similarities and differences in beliefs about the decisions to commute by bicycle to work in three small, cyclingoriented cities: Gouda (The Netherlands), Shkodra (Albania), and Peja (Kosovo). The setting in the Balkan Peninsula, a less developed region of Europe which has been more rarely the subject of scientific inquiry, has the potential to offer applicability to (smaller) developing cities. The study identifies the following themes or beliefs related to cycling: (1) health and exercise (2) environment (3) safety (4) enjoyment (5) convenience and practicality (6) financial savings (7) pride and tradition (8) status and image and (9) female independence. The findings suggest that, in developing cities changes to the physical environment alone – although crucial - are likely to be insufficient if travel modes are to shift toward active transport. To this end attitudes and perceptions need to be...
Employing the theory of planned behavior for guidance, this study explores the similarities and differences in beliefs about the decisions to commute by bicycle to work in three small, cyclingoriented cities: Gouda (The Netherlands), Shkodra (Albania), and Peja (Kosovo). The setting in the...
Dorina Pojani, Dukagjin Bakija, Entela Shkreli, Jonathan Corcoran, Iderlina Mateo-Babiano -
Freight sustains our daily lives and economy. Information on its characteristics, its production and consumption locations and its modes of transport are consequently of a crucial importance for private and public decision makers. This paper presents a freight generation model for the Belgian territory. Based on data gathered on transport flows by commodity type and loading unit and data on population density and business establishments with their characteristics, generated and attracted freight volumes were obtained for 4934 zones subdividing the country. A generalized linear regression analysis with log link was used to do so. Both generated and attracted volumes are connected to one another by a conditional probability function, resulting in an origin-destination matrix. The analysis is to our knowledge unique as modelled volumes and flows can be distinguished by commodity types and loading unit, and this at very detailed geographical scale. This will lead to new in-depth analyses and added value, including effects of loading unit dependent logistics cost structures.
Freight sustains our daily lives and economy. Information on its characteristics, its production and consumption locations and its modes of transport are consequently of a crucial importance for private and public decision makers. This paper presents a freight generation model for the Belgian territory. Based on data gathered on transport flows by commodity type and loading unit and data on population density and business establishments with their characteristics, generated and attracted freight volumes were obtained for 4934 zones subdividing the country. A generalized linear regression analysis with log link was used to do so. Both generated and attracted volumes are connected to one another by a conditional probability function, resulting in an origin-destination matrix. The analysis is to our knowledge unique as modelled volumes and flows can be distinguished by commodity types and loading unit, and this at very detailed geographical scale. This will lead to new in-depth...
Freight sustains our daily lives and economy. Information on its characteristics, its production and consumption locations and its modes of transport are consequently of a crucial importance for private and public decision makers. This paper presents a freight generation model for the Belgian...
Koen Mommens, Tom van Lier, Cathy Macharis -
Automated driving technology is emerging. Yet, little is known in the literature about when automated vehicles will reach the market, how penetration rates will evolve and to what extent this new transport technology will affect transport demand and planning. This study uses scenario analysis to identify plausible future development paths of automated vehicles in the Netherlands and to estimate potential implications for traffic, travel behaviour and transport planning on a time horizon up to 2030 and 2050. The scenario analysis was performed through a series of three workshops engaging a group of diverse experts. Sixteen key factors and five driving forces behind them were identified as critical in determining future development of automated vehicles in the Netherlands. Four scenarios were constructed assuming combinations of high or low technological development and restrictive or supportive policies for automated vehicles (AV …in standby, AV …in bloom, AV …in demand, AV …in doubt). According to the scenarios, fully automated vehicles are expected to be commercially available between 2025 and 2045, and to penetrate the market rapidly after their introduction. Penetration rates are expected to vary among different scenarios between 1% and 11% (mainly conditionally automated vehicles) in 2030 and between 7% and 61% (mainly fully automated vehicles) in 2050. Complexity of the urban environment and unexpected incidents may influence development path of automated vehicles. Certain implications on mobility are expected in all scenarios, although there is great variation in the impacts among the scenarios. Measures to curb growth of travel and subsequent externalities are expected in three out of the four scenarios.
Automated driving technology is emerging. Yet, little is known in the literature about when automated vehicles will reach the market, how penetration rates will evolve and to what extent this new transport technology will affect transport demand and planning. This study uses scenario analysis to identify plausible future development paths of automated vehicles in the Netherlands and to estimate potential implications for traffic, travel behaviour and transport planning on a time horizon up to 2030 and 2050. The scenario analysis was performed through a series of three workshops engaging a group of diverse experts. Sixteen key factors and five driving forces behind them were identified as critical in determining future development of automated vehicles in the Netherlands. Four scenarios were constructed assuming combinations of high or low technological development and restrictive or supportive policies for automated vehicles (AV …in standby, AV …in bloom, AV …in demand, AV...
Automated driving technology is emerging. Yet, little is known in the literature about when automated vehicles will reach the market, how penetration rates will evolve and to what extent this new transport technology will affect transport demand and planning. This study uses scenario analysis...
Dimitris Milakis, Maaike Snelder, Bart van Arem, Bert van Wee, Gonçalo Homem de Almeida Correia -
This paper uses automatically-recorded vehicle number plate data from a network of 22 cameras in Dorset, UK, to investigate the extent to which regular trip making can be determined using the regularity of individual vehicle arrival times across the same sites and time intervals over extended periods of several months and illustrates how a cohort of recognised regular vehicles may provide indicative evidence of traffic delays. Regularity was defined based on minimum numbers of observations over a given period and with specified maximum values of standard deviation in arrival time, with sensitivity to different values being tested. It was found that around one-fifth of all vehicles were regular during the morning peak where the definition required at least 30 observations out of 210 working days and with a standard deviation in arrival time of no more than ten minutes; significantly fewer vehicles were found to be regular in the afternoon peak. The turnover, or churn, of regular vehicles was found to be considerable, with only one-tenth of defined regular vehicles being continuously regular throughout the period and with identified pools of regular drivers halving in size every three months, as vehicles ceased to be regular and where the pool was not updated. This suggests that any database of regular drivers should be updated at least quarterly to ensure that new regular vehicles are included and that old ones are discarded. These findings may have inferences for traffic information systems tailored for different driver groups according to assumed levels of network knowledge.
This paper uses automatically-recorded vehicle number plate data from a network of 22 cameras in Dorset, UK, to investigate the extent to which regular trip making can be determined using the regularity of individual vehicle arrival times across the same sites and time intervals over extended periods of several months and illustrates how a cohort of recognised regular vehicles may provide indicative evidence of traffic delays. Regularity was defined based on minimum numbers of observations over a given period and with specified maximum values of standard deviation in arrival time, with sensitivity to different values being tested. It was found that around one-fifth of all vehicles were regular during the morning peak where the definition required at least 30 observations out of 210 working days and with a standard deviation in arrival time of no more than ten minutes; significantly fewer vehicles were found to be regular in the afternoon peak. The turnover, or churn, of regular...
This paper uses automatically-recorded vehicle number plate data from a network of 22 cameras in Dorset, UK, to investigate the extent to which regular trip making can be determined using the regularity of individual vehicle arrival times across the same sites and time intervals over extended...
Fraser N. McLeod, Tom J. Cherrett, Simon Box, Ben J. Waterson, James A. Pritchard -
The aim of this paper is to assess the reliability of policy evaluation based on Land Use and Transport Interactions models, relative to the choice of the Basic Spatial Units. An UrbanSim (+ MATsim) model applied to Brussels (Belgium) is used as the case study. The evolution of the study area over twenty years is forecasted for four levels of Basic Spatial Units and five scenarios (businessas-usual and four alternatives). Results show larger variations between Basic Spatial Units levels than across scenarios. These findings are valid for various sustainability indicators and for a simple cost-benefit analysis aiming at ranking the scenarios. The direction of the variations resulting from the implementation of the scenarios remains, however, the same for all Basic Spatial Units levels. Hence, the influence of the scale on policy evaluation based on Land Use and Transport Interactions models appears limited when it is only intended to compare scenarios, but it will have a crucial role when evaluations are based on absolute variations or threshold values.
The aim of this paper is to assess the reliability of policy evaluation based on Land Use and Transport Interactions models, relative to the choice of the Basic Spatial Units. An UrbanSim (+ MATsim) model applied to Brussels (Belgium) is used as the case study. The evolution of the study area over twenty years is forecasted for four levels of Basic Spatial Units and five scenarios (businessas-usual and four alternatives). Results show larger variations between Basic Spatial Units levels than across scenarios. These findings are valid for various sustainability indicators and for a simple cost-benefit analysis aiming at ranking the scenarios. The direction of the variations resulting from the implementation of the scenarios remains, however, the same for all Basic Spatial Units levels. Hence, the influence of the scale on policy evaluation based on Land Use and Transport Interactions models appears limited when it is only intended to compare scenarios, but it will have a crucial...
The aim of this paper is to assess the reliability of policy evaluation based on Land Use and Transport Interactions models, relative to the choice of the Basic Spatial Units. An UrbanSim (+ MATsim) model applied to Brussels (Belgium) is used as the case study. The evolution of the study area...
Jonathan Jones, Dominique Peeters, Isabelle Thomas -
In this special issue we present three papers selected from the 18th meeting of the EURO Working Group on Transportation (EWGT) which was held in July 2015 in Delft, the Netherlands, organized by Delft University of Technology. The selected contributions reflect the diversity of topics that were addressed in this conference, which is dedicated to mathematical modeling of transportation problems. We are happy to have a small but representative sample in which three different modes of transportation are in focus: the bicycle, the car and the airplane. The editors are very grateful for all the work that authors and referees have put in creating interesting research papers in this broad field of transportation research. This editorial first explains what the EWGT is and how the EWGT conference was organized. The three contributions are then presented and put into the perspective of the Dutch edition of the EWGT conference.
In this special issue we present three papers selected from the 18th meeting of the EURO Working Group on Transportation (EWGT) which was held in July 2015 in Delft, the Netherlands, organized by Delft University of Technology. The selected contributions reflect the diversity of topics that were addressed in this conference, which is dedicated to mathematical modeling of transportation problems. We are happy to have a small but representative sample in which three different modes of transportation are in focus: the bicycle, the car and the airplane. The editors are very grateful for all the work that authors and referees have put in creating interesting research papers in this broad field of transportation research. This editorial first explains what the EWGT is and how the EWGT conference was organized. The three contributions are then presented and put into the perspective of the Dutch edition of the EWGT conference.
In this special issue we present three papers selected from the 18th meeting of the EURO Working Group on Transportation (EWGT) which was held in July 2015 in Delft, the Netherlands, organized by Delft University of Technology. The selected contributions reflect the diversity of topics that...
Gonçalo Homem de Almeida Correia, Bruno F. Santos, Maarten Kroesen -
This paper extends the use of peak-load pricing (PLP) to the context of the European Air Traffic Management system, as EU regulation No 391/2013 allows the modulation of en-route charges to avoid network capacity-demand imbalance in a specific area or on a specific route at specific times. In particular, we propose a centralised approach to PLP (CPLP) where a Central Planner (CP) is responsible for setting en-route charges on the network and Airspace Users (AUs) assess the routing of each flight. Set en-route charges should guarantee that air navigation service providers (ANSPs) are able to recover their operational costs, and that AUs perform their flights avoiding imbalances between demand and available airspace capacity. Like in the current charging system, in CPLP AUs react to en-route charges (which are imposed by CP instead of ANSPs) by choosing alternative and cheaper routes. Hence, we model this relationship between the CP and the AUs as a Stackelberg game where a leader (CP) makes his/her decision first, with complete knowledge on how the follower(s) (AUs) would react to it. The Stackelberg equilibrium is obtained by means of an optimisation problem formulated as a bilevel mixed-integer linear programming model, where the CP sets, for each ANSP, one peak and one off-peak en-route charge and the AUs make their routing choice. Preliminary results on real data instances on a regional scale are presented.
This paper extends the use of peak-load pricing (PLP) to the context of the European Air Traffic Management system, as EU regulation No 391/2013 allows the modulation of en-route charges to avoid network capacity-demand imbalance in a specific area or on a specific route at specific times. In particular, we propose a centralised approach to PLP (CPLP) where a Central Planner (CP) is responsible for setting en-route charges on the network and Airspace Users (AUs) assess the routing of each flight. Set en-route charges should guarantee that air navigation service providers (ANSPs) are able to recover their operational costs, and that AUs perform their flights avoiding imbalances between demand and available airspace capacity. Like in the current charging system, in CPLP AUs react to en-route charges (which are imposed by CP instead of ANSPs) by choosing alternative and cheaper routes. Hence, we model this relationship between the CP and the AUs as a Stackelberg game where a leader...
This paper extends the use of peak-load pricing (PLP) to the context of the European Air Traffic Management system, as EU regulation No 391/2013 allows the modulation of en-route charges to avoid network capacity-demand imbalance in a specific area or on a specific route at specific times. In...
Tatjana Bolić, Lorenzo Castelli, Desirée Rigonat -
In recent years, many concepts have been developed on how to build a sufficient charging infrastructure to satisfy the demand of Battery Electric Vehicle (BEV) users. However, the focus of these approaches often lies on the spatial distribution of charging stations and the amount of charging demand is often given beforehand. In this paper, we describe a model to estimate the future private charging demand at public charging stations for different regions. Several aspects that influence the needed amount of charging stations are considered, e.g. a growing range of BEVs and the behavior of different user groups. For example, we distinguish between BEV users with or without a home charging possibility. The spatial distribution of these user groups is modeled using an agent-based approach, respecting sociodemographic properties. Forecasting the spread of BEVs strongly depends on the assumptions made regarding these influencing factors, where different current studies obtain deviant results. Therefore, in a case study for the city of Munich, we consider three different scenarios assuming a pessimistic, a realistic and an optimistic spread of BEVs in the year 2020. Additionally, we present a sensitivity analysis of the influencing factors and identify the ones that have the highest impact on the future charging demand: the overall adoption rate of BEVs is the parameter that influences the output the most. In fact, an adoption rate that is 10% higher than expected leads to an increase in charging demand of about 16%. This means, that our model strongly depends on reliable input data. The output of our model is the expected number of charging events requested in a certain region on an average day. Together with the average parking time and the temporal distribution of car arrivals at public charging stations, it is possible to obtain the necessary size of the charging infrastructure such that the demand can be satisfied even during peak hours. These results can be used as an input to existing optimization algorithms for the allocation of charging stations.
In recent years, many concepts have been developed on how to build a sufficient charging infrastructure to satisfy the demand of Battery Electric Vehicle (BEV) users. However, the focus of these approaches often lies on the spatial distribution of charging stations and the amount of charging demand is often given beforehand. In this paper, we describe a model to estimate the future private charging demand at public charging stations for different regions. Several aspects that influence the needed amount of charging stations are considered, e.g. a growing range of BEVs and the behavior of different user groups. For example, we distinguish between BEV users with or without a home charging possibility. The spatial distribution of these user groups is modeled using an agent-based approach, respecting sociodemographic properties. Forecasting the spread of BEVs strongly depends on the assumptions made regarding these influencing factors, where different current studies obtain deviant...
In recent years, many concepts have been developed on how to build a sufficient charging infrastructure to satisfy the demand of Battery Electric Vehicle (BEV) users. However, the focus of these approaches often lies on the spatial distribution of charging stations and the amount of charging...
Maximilian Schüßler, Tanja Niels, Klaus Bogenberger -
Many arguments sustaining active modes of transport are related to ameliorating urban life. Biking should be one option for our daily trips including utilitarian trips and not only trips for leisure. Accordingly, designing cycle networks that meet citizens’ requirements for daily trips is important to increase modal share. Particularly, it should take into account coherence, directness and attractiveness/comfort, not overlooking safety issues towards other road vehicles. Furthermore, it must consider also the current limitations of existing roads (lane width or gradient), in order not to hinder excessively existing road traffic while rearranging the carriageway for suitable cycle network. These objectives become more challenging when aiming to enlarge an incipient cycle network and make it grow to a large and ubiquitous one, in hilly and consolidated urban areas. The present research proposes a practice-ready method to be implemented for screening the existing road network to potentially rearrange the existing carriageway and accommodate a cycling network in urban areas with such characteristics. The methodology suggests also key indicators to analyze the potential performance of the cycle network, at an early planning stage. Although applied to Lisbon, the cycle network screening method is potentially relevant for countries where major urban agglomerations stand in hilly land and still want to see their cyclists grow in the next years. We conclude that it is possible to potentially fit a large cycle network of almost 20% of Lisbon’s total road network. The possible network configurations obtained are assessed in terms of coherence, directness and attractiveness/comfort for bikers. Finally, construction costs of the cycle networks obtained were compared.
Many arguments sustaining active modes of transport are related to ameliorating urban life. Biking should be one option for our daily trips including utilitarian trips and not only trips for leisure. Accordingly, designing cycle networks that meet citizens’ requirements for daily trips is important to increase modal share. Particularly, it should take into account coherence, directness and attractiveness/comfort, not overlooking safety issues towards other road vehicles. Furthermore, it must consider also the current limitations of existing roads (lane width or gradient), in order not to hinder excessively existing road traffic while rearranging the carriageway for suitable cycle network. These objectives become more challenging when aiming to enlarge an incipient cycle network and make it grow to a large and ubiquitous one, in hilly and consolidated urban areas. The present research proposes a practice-ready method to be implemented for screening the existing road network to...
Many arguments sustaining active modes of transport are related to ameliorating urban life. Biking should be one option for our daily trips including utilitarian trips and not only trips for leisure. Accordingly, designing cycle networks that meet citizens’ requirements for daily trips is...
Filipe Moura, Joana Magalhães da Silva, Luis Picado Santos