Sensitivity analysis of impact model for road freight by the increase in the use of larger trucks in Spain

Abstract

This study develops an impact model for road freight transport and aims to analyse the sensitivity of the results to the model parameters. Scenarios are simulated to study the effect of this model on road freight transport operations. The model and the methodology are applied to the sampling data from the permanent road freight survey of the Spanish Ministry of Transport. According to the results, the optimum parameter values or ranges are recommended, and the assumptions involved in the impact estimates are justified. Finally, the model is also proposed to apply and extended to a large logistic network. Estimates and projections presented in this study are based on the level of shift of goods for the larger trucks, the modal shift from the railway, and the elasticity demand for road freight transport as a result of lower transport operation costs. The results of this study show that, considering the effects of induced truck traffic and the shift of goods from rail to road, increasing the weight limits for trucks produces slight benefits.