Voting for Europe?

Authors

  • Daan De Leeuw Radboud University Nijmegen

Abstract

By using micro data from the European Elections Survey this paper tests the different explanations for government party losses in the 2014 European Parliamentary (EP) elections. Using logistic regression, this paper finds support for all four tested theories, however, their dominance is geographically differentiated. Comparisons with earlier empirical studies point to the changing nature of EP elections over time. This finding suggests that future EP elections will be evaluated more as sui generis elections when its (perceived) importance further develops. The findings of this study contribute to voting behavior theory in EP elections and multi-level-governance in general.

References

Reif, K. & Schmitt, H. (1980). Nine second-order national elections – a conceptual framework for the analysis of european election results. European Journal of Political Research, Volume 8, pp. 3-44.

Church, C. & Phinnemore, D. (2007). From the constitutional treaty to the treaty of Lisbon and Beyond. In Cini, M. (Ed.), European Union Politics (pp. 41-59). Oxford: Oxford University Press.

Hix, S. (2013). Why the 2014 European Elections Matter: Ten Key Votes in the 2009–2013 European Parliament. European Policy Analyses, Volume 15, pp. 1-15.

Toygur, I. & Schmitt, H. (2014). The European Parliament elections of May 2014: Second-order or crisis elections? Conference paper presented at the ECPR General Conference, Glasgow, 4 September, 2014.

Hobolt, S.B & Wittrock, J. (2011). The second-order election model revisited: An experimental test of vote choices in European Parliament elections. Electoral Studies, Volume 30, pp. 29–40.

Schmitt, H., Sanz, A. & Braun, D. (2008). The Micro-Foundations of Second-order Election Theory Conference paper presented at the Citizen Politics Workshop, Manchester, 9 September, 2008.

Anderson, J. (1996). Barometer Elections in Comparative Perspective. Electoral Studies, Volume 15, Issue 4, pp. 447-460.

Kousser, T. (2004). Retrospective voting and strategic behavior in European Parliament elections. Electoral Studies, Volume 23, pp. 1–21.

Marsh, M. (2009). Chapter 3 Vote Switching in European Parliament Elections: Evidence from June 2004. Journal of European Integration, Volume 31, Issue 5.

Lewis-Beck, M.S. & Stegmaier, M. (2000). Economic Determinants of Electoral Outcomes. Annual Review of Political Science, Volume 3, pp. 183–219.

Hobolt, S.B., Spoon, J.J. & Tilley, J. (2008). A Vote Against Europe? Explaining Defection at the 1999 and 2004 European Parliament Elections. British Journal of Political Science. Volume 39, pp. 93–115.

Saarts, T. (2011). Europe: the Case of the Baltic States. Studies of Transition States and Societies, Volume 3, pp. 83-104.

Koepke, J.R. & Ringe, N. (2006). The Second-Order Election Model in an Enlarged Europe. European Union Politics, Volume 7, Issue 3.

Nordsieck, W. (2015). Parties and Elections in Europe, http://www.parties-and-elections.eu/.

Miller, A.H. & Wattenberg, M.P. (1985). Throwing the Rascals Out: Policy and Performance Evaluations of Presidential Candidates, 1952-1980. American Political Science Review, Volume 79, Issue 2, pp. 359-37

Downloads

Published

2015-11-20

How to Cite

De Leeuw, D. (2015). Voting for Europe?. Student Undergraduate Research E-Journal!, 1. Retrieved from https://journals.open.tudelft.nl/sure/article/view/1089

Issue

Section

Economics & Social Sciences