Drought analysis in Tanzania using Markov Chains

Abstract

The Usambara Mountains are a region in Tanzania with a high population density, low soil fertility and high rainfall variability. The persistence of drought occurrence and the influence of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) driven sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies on drought occurrence in the Usambara Mountains was analyzed. A Markov analysis was used to calculate the rainfall probabilities and drought occurrence. The October-December rainfall season showed a higher rainfall variability than the March-May rainfall season, a higher probability for drought occurrence, is therefore unreliable for the cultivation of crops and is correlated with the IOD.