Cold Chain Resilience Across Humanitarian and Resource-Constrained Settings: A Hybrid Simulation Framework
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.59490/jscms.2026.8437Keywords:
Cold chain resilience, Humanitarian logistics, Hybrid simulation, Power reliability, Vaccine cold storageAbstract
Cold chain systems are critical for preserving vaccines and other temperature-sensitive medicines, yet in fragile, resource-constrained, and crisis-affected settings, they are frequently exposed to power instability, damaged infrastructure, and extreme environmental conditions. Existing modeling approaches often emphasize supply flows while underrepresenting the interaction of thermal, logistical, and operational stressors that shape cold-chain behavior under disruption. This study introduces a hybrid simulation framework that integrates physics-based refrigeration dynamics, power availability, logistics processes, agent-driven operations, stochastic disruptions, and temperature-dependent spoilage evaluation. The framework is applied to four illustrative contexts representing heterogeneous conditions: a conflict-affected Gaza setting, a rural conflict-affected Sudan setting, a high-altitude Nepal setting, and a post-earthquake Haiti setting. Across the modeled scenarios, clinics consistently exhibited larger temperature fluctuations than depots and warehouses, while power instability emerged as a dominant contributor to thermal risk. Intervention effects varied by context; measures targeting energy availability and infrastructure generally influenced outcomes more strongly than isolated equipment upgrades. In some cases, equipment upgrades implemented without corresponding energy reinforcement increased power demand, leading to greater downtime and temperature excursions than the baseline configuration. Overall, the results indicate that cold-chain behavior under disruption is shaped by interactions among environmental, infrastructural, and operational factors rather than by equipment performance alone. The framework enables systematic exploration of these interactions and comparative analysis of cold-chain behavior across humanitarian settings.
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