Improving Safety and Security on Railways Using Forecasting

  • Andrei Loukianov
  • Coen Van Gulijk University of Huddersfield
  • Pieter Van Gelder TU Delft
  • Sarah Deacon University of Huddersfield
  • Valentina Viduto University of Huddersfield
  • Markus Stumptner University of South Australia


Allocation of resources to improve security is crucial when we consider people’s safety on transport systems. We show how a system engineering methodology can be used to link business intelligence and railway specifics toward better value for money. A model is proposed to determine a probability of a success in service management. The forecasting model is a basic Markov Chain. A use case demonstrates a way to align statistical data (crime on stations) and probability of investment into resources (people, security measures, time).

How to Cite
LOUKIANOV, Andrei et al. Improving Safety and Security on Railways Using Forecasting. Journal of Integrated Security Science, [S.l.], v. 2, n. 1, p. 1-18, dec. 2017. ISSN 2468-4546. Available at: <>. Date accessed: 14 dec. 2018. doi: